Monthly Archives: January 2007

2007 Predictions – Web 2.0 Landscape

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The whole web 2.0 is just so over. Everything labeled 2.0 is stupid and it is a short term mistake because now that you have versions you won’t have long term innovation.

Here is my two cents on the market for 2007:

Digg – They have set off a revolution but the hype is going to peak. Netscape actually has better news and is more relevant. Make money or sell soon.

Facebook – Arrogant Founder, turns down $1.5B offer because he thinks its worth $8B. People are just wanting this to implode. I have one word for you – Friendster.

Myspace – MySpace will offer paid content or new revenue share models. As many people say that Web 2.0 is an after market for Google, media sites and design shops will become an after market for MySpace. We will see a whole new set of companies specializing in “MySpace consulting”.

Office 2.0 – This area will make some incremental headway as the apps get more sophisticated but the trick is going to be offline use.

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2007 Predictions – Apple

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There are tons of blogs doing predictions and Macworld rumor control.

Macworld and the reactivation of the reality distortion field (RDF) will be in full effect in a few days.

I take an approach that is different and looks more at obvious trends than wild guesses.

To sum it up: Last year for Apple was the “Year of Intel”. I believe that this the “Year of The Living Room”.

Here is my short list for the year:

• iPhone – I would usually believe Kevin Rose because he nailed the nano. This has become the “Tech Industry unicorn”. Unless it can let you call God, it will not be good enough because of all the hype. I still like having a phone and an iPod.
• Mac Pro 8-Core – This is inevitable but I think they will still keep the older Mac Pro to create a more entry level professional system.
• iTV – Details at Macworld. Available in March. I think this sucker is gonna be the new Mac Mini and have hard drive capability. It can’t just be a video Airport. Why don’t these guys just buy Tivo and Netflix to make the holy trinity of video entertainment.
• Google+Apple – This will link to the iTV and I think there will be a YouTube front page for the iTV. Can’t resist saying portal here.
• Leopard – Lots of features I am not even able to imagine. However, it will have more virtualization capability like Parallels. Macs have the potential to be the tri-wizard, I mean tri-OS, hardware of choice. Imagine, Mac OS X at the center with Windows apps and Linux Ubuntu running select apps. This means limitless power. It might be at this point that we can reveal ourselves to the Jedi…
• Displays – This is a gimme. No updates in 2 years, iSights are out of stock. I will go even further that they will have a 42 and 50 inch TV to go along with the iTV announcement.
• iPods – Upgrade in storage at Macworld. Separate announcement later in spring for Video iPod. This will coincide with the iTV revolution they will claim. They need to move HD movies into the living room to make money.
• Announcements – More studios, new video editing capabilities with their recent acquisitions.

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2007 Predictions – Overall Tech Industry

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Let’s move on to the tech industry which is looking to be a great year and the best since 1999.

Enterprise 2.0 will be the most over used phrase of 2007. Since Web 2.0 has even made it to the cover of Time magazine, people are wondering how this will actually improve their businesses. This is why people pitching solutions to companies will hook on to the Enterprise 2.0 moniker. Much like the Internet when it became popular in the early to mid-1990′s the first way it made money was to the public user or consumer. Soon intranets became popular and then enterprise portals made web technologies have real impact on businesses. The same is happening now and companies will move en masse to be Enterprise 2.0 service providers.

Vista will not get adopted by IT departments and might suffer from the Osborne effect. It will be force fed to us in new systems purchased and not by IT companies looking to upgrade. They will want a real advantage and it looks like the next Microsoft OS revisions will have the WinFS and other stuff.

Search will move to niche markets. This is because Google is good for somethings but not all things. Many search engines are helping with specific areas like Jobster and

RSS Technology will evolve and a new technology will be launched on top of it. RSS is just too hard to work with and there will be a new technology that will sit on top of RSS making communication and content creation even easier.

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2007 Predictions-VC Market

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As I get back in swing of blogging after a few months off, starting the new year with a predictions entry is a good way to start.

I thought I might do this topically to keep things organized. This is also going to be separate into easier digestible posts. Let’s get started with my outside looking in thoughts on the VC market.

Overall Venture Capital Markets
Deal flow will be steady but not bubble like. Increase and investment will grow at a steady 5-10% amount on average. As many VC’s continue to invest with a herd mentality, look for lots of “green investments” in clean technologies. Software will increase but media will be the darling after the YouTube exit. I believe that trends in social networking like Social Shopping, Social Search and Social Commerce will take it to the next level. Funding and M&A activity will be heavy.

More funds will go international. The amount of deal flow in the US is fine but those looking to make great strides will be going to India and China. This is supported by the NVCA survey (downloads pdf file) courtesy of the VentureBeat site.

The Carlyle Model becomes more popular. There are only so many companies that Google, Yahoo and Microsoft will want to buy. Carlyle Group has made a name for itself as a conglomerate and there will be more of a “Keiretsu revival” where instead of in the 90′s when people invested and then tried to tie them together, companies will form in order to buy established companies that will work well together. Why try and create another Yahoo when you can buy 15 companies that together make an even better one?

The IPO market will be almost back in full swing. The housing market will continue to crap out so people will be looking to put their money in the market again. This means IPOs but it doesn’t mean bubbles. People are smarter these days and companies will have to really be making money and have a real plan otherwise they should hope to be acquired by Google or a Hedge Fund.

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How did I do? Review of 2006 Predictions

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I have read so many predictions for 2007 and it caused me to go back and look at my predictions for 2006.

Let’s see how close I got:
“2006 is going to be the year of Video” – With the acquisition of YouTube and all its competitors making waves with “User Generated Content” I got that one right.

2006 Apple Predictions
1.) Macworld is all about the Mac Mini and content announcements
I don’t see much here on the iPod horizon, but I do see Macworld being about content and distribution. This means that you are really limited by having content on your iPod. However, if you can download content, play it to your TV with your Mac Mini and dock you iPod to take it with you, well now that is scary.
WINNER – They announced iTV and will launch it at Macworld 2007

2.) Intel switch is not as huge as everyone thinks it is.
Everyone knows it is coming. Everyone believes that you will have a machine you can boot Linux/Windows and OS X (now really who would want to do that?). What it will really do is make machines a little faster and make people more comfortable about the platform.
The real winner? Application developers.
Because applications don’t need virtual PC to emulate Intel, companies will make applications for PC and Mac and will slowly erode the advantage of applications available for OS X. To be honest, I am getting ready to make the switch and in my opinion, almost everything is available for me to make the move.
LOSER – They announced it and the switch has improved market share and applications like Parallels has prompted switchers to move fast.

3.) Music prices will go dynamic
Because the record companies are breathing down Steve Job’s neck, he will move iTunes to a dynamic pricing model, with more expensive popular singles on their debut and moving down to $.99 and even lowering less popular songs in price.
LOSER – Never happened.

4.) G6 desktop in Q3 2006
I believe that once the Intel Powerbooks and iBooks are moved over in Q1 and Q2 to the Intel platform, it will be time for the G6 in a sweet quad configuration. This will allow enough time to port all of the powerful applications to the Intel Mac platform, Adobe CS3 will be out and written for this platform. All the children will rejoice.
Partial WINNER – They did announce the Macbook and Mac Pro. CS3 is planned for spring 2007 much to everyone’s dismay.

5.) Steve Jobs gets humble
I have to have one that will absolutely not come true…..
WINNER – Because I predicted it would never happen.

COMING NEXT… Predictions for 2007

Happy 2007!

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Welcome to 2007. This is a prepublished entry as I am likely drinking heavily and playing Xbox 360 right now, but I wanted to post my own contribution to the world of new year welcomes.

This past year has been huge for me. Jan 1 of 2006 saw me separated from my wife, working three jobs, seriously in debt, and basically just treading water to survive. One year later, my world has changed. My wife and I are back together and very happy. I have quit all the jobs I worked last year and am working fulltime in the Web 2.0 world. Much of my debt is eliminated. I now blog for money as opposed to blogging just to hear myself talk.

It’s not all about this blog though. This blog has almost doubled in traffic. I’ve dumped 4 blogs and picked up Suicide Fan and began contributing to the Washington Hotlist. I’ve contributed at Problogger, Blog Herald and the WordPress development blog.

My profile has grown, my reach pushed out and my contact list expanded.

As we go into 2007, I recognize where I’ve come but I recognize that my readers have helped me get there. I love you guys for it. Thanks!

Happy New Year to you and yours. May your dreams come true in this new year as so many of mine have in 2006.