Venture Files Tech Predictions 2008

Well kids, its that time of year again. Resolutions and Predictions.

As for resolutions, I need to lose weight but that will probably not happen so I will endeavor to breathe more regularly. I can definitely accomplish that.

With that out of the way, let’s talk about Predicitions.

From my posts last January here and here, I got a few hits (Vista would suck) and a few misses (Facebook will become the new Friendster).

So let’s talk about 2008….

I don’t generally see a theme this year except for “grow what you have”.

Apple – Since Macworld is right around the corner I don’t think we will see any real new products but rather a grow what they have to meet their projections. This means upgraded iPod Touches, iPhone 2.0, iPhone SDK, upgraded Apple TV, patches to Leopard, improved Cinema Displays and upgraded Macs/Mackbooks. The only thing I could see would be integration of their multi-touch technology on laptops (like the rumored sub-notebook).

Microsoft – Let’s face it, Vista blows. It’s slow, doesn’t have any real innovation under the hood and takes more horsepower to run. I predict they will continue forcing it down people’s throats and in revolt people will continue to order machines with XP. On the other side of the coin, the Xbox is rocking and I predict they will announce an integrated Windows Media Center/IPTV version with HD-DVD to compete with the Playstation 3. They have a real opportunity to own the living room since Apple TV has flopped.

Web 2.0 in general - Ok, hype over. Game over. Most “Web 2.0″ companies will go into the dust bin of history because their marketing strategy or ideas just didn’t pan out. Also, as more companies adopt these technologies into their “Enterprise 2.0″ strategy there will be less of a rush to create another social network or AJAX-ified web site unless it has real value. Side note – kill the term Enterprise 2.0. The enterprise hasn’t changed, the apps have just gotten easier to develop.

Twitter will get bought – it is a cool tool but not a lot money to made behind it. It needs to be part of a bigger whole. They also need better infrastructure because they crash whenever there is a big tech conference. CES will be a big test for them.

Pownce will die – Twitter won this battle. Game over.

Digg will get bought - After rumors of a sale for the last 18 months, they finally get bought by a media behemoth. Sale price? $300 million.

Yahoo will continue to struggle and have massive layoffs – Yahoo didn’t change much with their executive restructuring and they have really sucked at integrating their products. They are going to get hit with lower stock prices and will have to cut the fat out.

HD-DVD and BluRay will not have a winner, still – This year is just going to continue the fight with hybrid drives getting cheaper so by 2009 the choice will be irrelevant.

Google’s honeymoon with Wall Street will end – With the acquisition of DoubleClick there is more of a chance for Google to fail. Along with it trying to change to many sectors, Healthcare and Energy to name a few, it will need to shore up its core competencies before people start to trash it and the stock will be worth half what it is today.

Facebook – They are a necessary evil right now and their beacon debacle will need to be fixed in order for them to go IPO. They will be the new IPO darling as analysts are ready to trash Google.

Well, that should do it for the major stuff. Not too radical but it will be an interesting 2008 with the potential of a recession on the horizon that could make all of this moot.

Please leave comments on things you think I missed or got wrong. I want to hear from you.

Aaron Brazell

Aaron Brazell is a Baltimore, MD-based WordPress developer, a co-founder at WP Engine, WordPress core contributor and author. He wrote the book WordPress Bible and has been publishing on the web since 2000. You can follow him on Twitter, on his personal blog and view his photography at The Aperture Filter.