Comments on: Early Adopters Are Useless

By: Aaron Brazell

Aaron Brazell — Sat, 17 May 2008 23:43:24 +0000

oh chris, you are so non-techie.

Kidding, you’re one of 4 people recently that showed up in my life with a Kindle. I use the generic combination of those 4 as a reference point.

By: Chris Bachmann

Chris Bachmann — Sat, 17 May 2008 23:41:19 +0000

I certainly hope that you don’t consider me a non-techie. We need to make the distinction between technology and consumer products. The iPhone, the Kindle, the Nokia N95, etc. are neat little products, for consumers. They’re the latest in the current walled garden approaches to squeezing out some more $$$ from the fan boys.

I would also include myself into this category since i also have a Kindle and really like the experience for what it’s primary purpose is. Reading books. I’m a book junkie and I’m having a hard time getting adequate shelf space for what I already have. The kindle solves a problem that I have IRL.

There’s also the tech scene which is involved with making things and altering existing products/software to do a little more. For instance: tcptraceroute (http://michael.toren.net/code/tcptraceroute/), the sputnik project (http://www.openbeacon.org/), the Open Voting Consortium (http://www.openvotingconsortium.org/), or even Make Magazine (http://makezine.com/) and it’s sister site http://instructibles.com. There’s a real energy there that makes the consumer side look like a bunch of old geezers in a park watching the pigeons.

Take the kindle for example. The screen technology isn’t necessarily new, it’s been around for almost a decade. EVDO has been around for quite some time in cell phones. And the other aspects aren’t exactly new either. It’s just a remix of existing technologies.

Then there’s the iPhone. Touch screens have been around for a few decades and the double touch methods were developed my Xerox Parc back in the early 80’s. On screen keyboards have been around since Steven Hawking first got put in his chair. Once again, it’s just a repackaging of existing technologies. There’s nothing special there for those of us who actually make stuff for fun.

By: Steve Lynch

Steve Lynch — Fri, 16 May 2008 21:06:45 +0000

It’s true. I remember hearing all the negative discussion online about the Kindle and thinking “oh well, maybe we’ll have to wait for a decent ebook reader.” But when my mother got one for her birthday she cried, she was so happy.

However, I don’t think early adopters are completely useless. Diffusion theory still works (the TechMeme crowd got me into FriendFeed, I got my dad on FF, and my dad recently joined, too – and he’s not an EA when it comes to social networking/blogging technologies).

By: Lisa Hyatt

Lisa Hyatt — Fri, 16 May 2008 19:03:37 +0000

Early Adopters are the risk takers of society. I don’t count that as irrelevant on all levels. I concede that they are unable to predict the success or failure of a product with absolute accuracy, but last I checked no one else has the infallible crystal ball either. Still, I know that I will have a much better chance of predicting in my own area of expertise over time that is better than random. In individual examples I can be proved wrong compared to someone with no knowledge. If allowed to “compete” over a long test, as an expert or early adopter I will win out. I find it very valuable if I can find those people in areas I don’t care to become an expert. I have no inclination or time to know what you, Scoble or Arrington know about the tech industry. I would venture to guess that you would have no interest to learn what I know about the financial industry or what a physicist knows about the cosmos. I don’t have the time to become an expert in all things, and I do value the opinions of those who prove to be passionate in their quest for knowledge in that area. I understand they are mortals, and still make my own decisions, but sorry, Technosailor, I think you are very relevant.

By: Jeff Brewster

Jeff Brewster — Fri, 16 May 2008 18:00:57 +0000

FWIW, that statement was from a Citigroup analyst and not directly from TechCrunch.

By: Vinnie

Vinnie — Fri, 16 May 2008 17:41:16 +0000

Smart analysis Aaron. All too often early adopters forget that they’re not really part of the mainstream (by choice or by circumstance, it doesn’t matter), and as such aren’t always the best judge at what will be popular among mom and pop.

Early adopters, at least in the tech/web scene, also get “featureitis”. The next thing HAS to have more/better features than the last thing. If it doesn’t support obscure feature X or Y it’s dead to them. Then an “inferior” product, which is really good enough for most people, comes out and gets super popular.

By: Todd Jordan

Todd Jordan — Fri, 16 May 2008 16:59:29 +0000

Aaron,

I’m hurt, being a guy that likes to adopt early and often. To say we don’t matter hurts. :)

Honestly though, the real success of something comes only in small part to early adopters. It’s when something goes out to the public that it either lives or dies. The Kindle is probably one of the best examples of that.

But I do think early adopters do really help a product. It’s folks like you and I that help unearth the big broken pieces, find the cool uses first, perhaps either one a deal breaker for a product or service. I’ve watched several products evolve and change from early alpha through to public release. The influence of the hard core is felt.

In the end though maybe it matters not, since the product will go out, and most likely these days with some or several bugs, regardless of early adopters. And yes, it won’t die most likely because of a lack of interest by early adopters or even the bad press they might give.

Would I stop being an early adopter though? Hell no. I love getting involved at the beginning of things, seeing the unpolished, giving suggestions, cheering the team on, and making new friends.

Don’t you stop either! Thanks for another fun article.