There are tons of blogs doing predictions and Macworld rumor control.
Macworld and the reactivation of the reality distortion field (RDF) will be in full effect in a few days.
I take an approach that is different and looks more at obvious trends than wild guesses.
To sum it up: Last year for Apple was the “Year of Intel”. I believe that this the “Year of The Living Room”.
Here is my short list for the year:
• iPhone – I would usually believe Kevin Rose because he nailed the nano. This has become the “Tech Industry unicorn”. Unless it can let you call God, it will not be good enough because of all the hype. I still like having a phone and an iPod.
• Mac Pro 8-Core – This is inevitable but I think they will still keep the older Mac Pro to create a more entry level professional system.
• iTV – Details at Macworld. Available in March. I think this sucker is gonna be the new Mac Mini and have hard drive capability. It can’t just be a video Airport. Why don’t these guys just buy Tivo and Netflix to make the holy trinity of video entertainment.
• Google+Apple – This will link to the iTV and I think there will be a YouTube front page for the iTV. Can’t resist saying portal here.
• Leopard – Lots of features I am not even able to imagine. However, it will have more virtualization capability like Parallels. Macs have the potential to be the tri-wizard, I mean tri-OS, hardware of choice. Imagine, Mac OS X at the center with Windows apps and Linux Ubuntu running select apps. This means limitless power. It might be at this point that we can reveal ourselves to the Jedi…
• Displays – This is a gimme. No updates in 2 years, iSights are out of stock. I will go even further that they will have a 42 and 50 inch TV to go along with the iTV announcement.
• iPods – Upgrade in storage at Macworld. Separate announcement later in spring for Video iPod. This will coincide with the iTV revolution they will claim. They need to move HD movies into the living room to make money.
• Announcements – More studios, new video editing capabilities with their recent acquisitions.
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Let’s move on to the tech industry which is looking to be a great year and the best since 1999.
Enterprise 2.0 will be the most over used phrase of 2007. Since Web 2.0 has even made it to the cover of Time magazine, people are wondering how this will actually improve their businesses. This is why people pitching solutions to companies will hook on to the Enterprise 2.0 moniker. Much like the Internet when it became popular in the early to mid-1990’s the first way it made money was to the public user or consumer. Soon intranets became popular and then enterprise portals made web technologies have real impact on businesses. The same is happening now and companies will move en masse to be Enterprise 2.0 service providers.
Vista will not get adopted by IT departments and might suffer from the Osborne effect. It will be force fed to us in new systems purchased and not by IT companies looking to upgrade. They will want a real advantage and it looks like the next Microsoft OS revisions will have the WinFS and other stuff.
Search will move to niche markets. This is because Google is good for somethings but not all things. Many search engines are helping with specific areas like Jobster and
RSS Technology will evolve and a new technology will be launched on top of it. RSS is just too hard to work with and there will be a new technology that will sit on top of RSS making communication and content creation even easier.
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As I get back in swing of blogging after a few months off, starting the new year with a predictions entry is a good way to start.
I thought I might do this topically to keep things organized. This is also going to be separate into easier digestible posts. Let’s get started with my outside looking in thoughts on the VC market.
Overall Venture Capital Markets
Deal flow will be steady but not bubble like. Increase and investment will grow at a steady 5-10% amount on average. As many VC’s continue to invest with a herd mentality, look for lots of “green investments” in clean technologies. Software will increase but media will be the darling after the YouTube exit. I believe that trends in social networking like Social Shopping, Social Search and Social Commerce will take it to the next level. Funding and M&A activity will be heavy.
More funds will go international. The amount of deal flow in the US is fine but those looking to make great strides will be going to India and China. This is supported by the NVCA survey (downloads pdf file) courtesy of the VentureBeat site.
The Carlyle Model becomes more popular. There are only so many companies that Google, Yahoo and Microsoft will want to buy. Carlyle Group has made a name for itself as a conglomerate and there will be more of a “Keiretsu revival” where instead of in the 90’s when people invested and then tried to tie them together, companies will form in order to buy established companies that will work well together. Why try and create another Yahoo when you can buy 15 companies that together make an even better one?
The IPO market will be almost back in full swing. The housing market will continue to crap out so people will be looking to put their money in the market again. This means IPOs but it doesn’t mean bubbles. People are smarter these days and companies will have to really be making money and have a real plan otherwise they should hope to be acquired by Google or a Hedge Fund.
Technorati Tags: predictions, venture capital