So what will happen next? Both sides have learnt the lessons of the fall of the Shah. In 1978 elements of the Shah's army lost their composure and fired on demonstrating crowds, causing a chain reaction of violence that led to the end of the Pahlavi dynasty. Yesterday I was told by a friend that the security forces withdrew when up to 100,000 protesters gathered in central Tehran: the Government is not ready to turn the Revolutionary Guards on the people. The demonstrators too are showing restraint: Iran is not like Gaza or the West Bank where people feel they have nothing to lose and are willing to accept martyrdom.

via How Mir Hossein Mousavi trapped the Supreme Leader | Shahram Kholdi – Times Online .